基于FAHP的关键链缓冲区设置方法

• 作 者: 李建中 刘甜 张静
• 机 构: 西北工业大学管理学院,
• 出 处: 项目管理技术
• 发表日期: 2013年09期
• 关键词: 项目管理 关键链 缓冲区 模糊层次分析法

深入分析了项目中工序位置、工序执行时间不确定性、资源紧张度、工序复杂度、工序关键性及管理者风险偏好等不确定因素对关键链缓冲区大小不同程度的影响,利用模糊层次分析法确定各影响因素的权重,提出了基于FAHP的关键链缓冲区设置方法,使缓冲区设置更加科学合理,有效缩短了项目工期。最后通过算例将该方法与根方差法进行对比,并利用Crystal Ball软件进行蒙特卡洛模拟,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。

In-depth analysis of the process of the project position, the uncertainty of the execution time of the process, the resource constraints, the complexity of the process, the key process and the risk of managers and other uncertainties on the size of the key chain buffer to varying degrees, the use of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process Method to determine the weight of each influencing factor, put forward the method of setting up the key chain buffer based on FAHP, make the setting of buffer more scientific and reasonable, and effectively shorten the project duration. At last, the method is compared with the root-mean-square method by the example and the Monte-Carlo simulation is carried out by using the Crystal Ball software to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.