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选取1960~2014年淮河上中游流域19个气象站点的月降水量、气温和日照时数等数据,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall、Morlet小波和相关系数法,对流域年和四季降水、气温和日照时数的变化趋势、多时间尺度演变特征以及相关性进行了研究。结果表明:1降水在年和四季线性变化趋势不显著;气温除夏季不显著外,年和春、秋、冬季变暖趋势显著;日照时数除春季不显著外,年和夏、秋、冬季节变短趋势显著;2降水、气温、日照时数在年和四季分别表现出多个时间尺度的相对丰枯、冷暖和长短交替特征;第一主周期尺度及其相应的平均变化周期在年和四季有的较接近有的相差较大,第一主要平均周期介于2~10 a之间;3气温的复相关系数均小于降水和日照时数;除冬季气温复相关系数较小外,其他季节各要素均较大。降水-日照的偏相关系数绝对值在年和四季均最大。降水-日照时数、降水-气温大部分情况呈反相关系,冬季气温和日照时数在主周期尺度28 a下呈同相变化。
The data of monthly precipitation, temperature and sunshine hours of 19 meteorological stations in the upper and middle reaches of the Huaihe River basin from 1960 to 2014 were selected. Based on the data of climate propensity, Mann-Kendall, Morlet wavelet and correlation coefficient, the annual and seasonal precipitation, temperature And the trend of sunshine duration, the evolution characteristics of multiple time scales and the correlation were studied. The results showed that: (1) the trend of linear change of precipitation was not significant in years and seasons; (2) the temperature had a significant warming trend in spring, autumn and winter except for the summer; sunshine duration was not significant in spring, autumn and winter The seasonal variation of precipitation, temperature and sunshine duration showed relative abundance, warmth and shortness of alternation on multiple timescales in years and seasons respectively. The first major periodicity and its corresponding average variation period The first major average period is between 2 ~ 10 a; the complex correlation coefficient of 3 temperature is less than the precipitation and sunshine hours; except for the complex correlation coefficient of winter air temperature is small, Other seasons are larger elements. The absolute value of partial correlation coefficient of precipitation-sunshine is the largest in the year and the four seasons. Precipitation - sunshine hours, precipitation - temperature in most cases are inversely related to the winter temperature and sunshine hours in the main periodic scale 28 a showed the same phase changes.