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Latin America’s incredible resilience to the global financial crisis and ensuing downturn will be tested in 2011, according to both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. While GDP growth for the region is expected in the 4% to 5% range, in line with the East Asian Tigers, currency pressures and inflation, along with the possibility of a substantial slowdown in either Brazil or China, pose huge risks for the region.
While Latin America’s impressive 6% growth rate in 2010 outpaced that of Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and high-income countries “by three percentage points,” the World Bank’s Latin America team noted that policymakers shouldn’t expect “smooth sailing ahead.”External and internal risks loom and it will require “skillful policy” to get through the crisis, according to the Augusto de la Torre, the Bank’s chief economist for Latin America. “Countries recovering more robustly face conflicting policy challenges,” reads the release.
According to the IMF’s most recent World Economic Outlook, “financially integrated commodity exporters,” which include Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Uruguay, face real potential overheating. The combination of a massive commodity windfall and extremely loose monetary policy in advanced economies has channeled huge capital flows to these economies.“Real credit growth in Brazil and Colombia is increasing by 10 to 20 percent a year according to the most recent data. Furthermore, per capita credit in Brazil roughly doubled over the past five years,” reads the IMF report, emphasizing the possibility of overheating. “Stepping up fiscal savings, without endangering social programs, will be essential to rebuild the buffers that helped the region successfully manage the crisis, the World Bank report argues.
Commodity exporters are also highly reliant on global markets for growth. From the IMF report:
Because of Brazil’s systemic importance to the region, many nei ghb or i n g countries are currently benefiting from its strong growth. Conversely, an abrupt slowdown of economic activity in Brazil would adversely affect the region. A related risk is that a potential hard landing in China would bring a sharp drop in the prices of the region’s commodity exports, dampening growth prospects. If a spike in oil prices were to dampen global growth, this could also be a trigger for a drop in the region’s commodity exports. Finally, another bout of higher global risk aversion or unexpectedly rapid increases in U.S. interest rates could lead to a sharp reversal in capital flows, although the experience during the recent turmoil in the euro area periphery suggests that such disruptions are unlikely to be overwhelming.
The need to execute skillful monetary and macroeconomic policy will be key, both reports claim. Inflation is expected in the 6% to 7% range, according to the World Bank, but could even top the 20% to 25% range in places like Argentina and Venezuela. At the same time, the effect of tightening monetary policy through interest rates is dampened by the fact that it implies “fighting the Fed.” From March 2009 to December 2010, this included both programs of quantitative easing by Ben Bernanke’s Federal Reserve, the real effective exchange rate of the larger countries in the region appreciated by a cumulative 18%, according to the World Bank.
Latin America countries are particularly well positioned to take advantage of an emerging market-led economic recovery and globalization. With growing middle classes and a vast array of natural resources, the countries are also vulnerable in that they are still tied to the fates of other countries: China, which is also a competitor, and Brazil, which is more like a primus inter pares.(www.forbes.com)