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以1977-2012年中国海赤潮的年发生频率及2001-2012年赤潮的月发生频率数据资料为基础,建立赤潮事件的年发生频率和月发生频率时间序列。赤潮的年发生频率与时间的分段回归拟合效果较好,月频率的季节性最大值在5月(约18.22),随机波动的大小随时间序列逐步增加,波动峰值主要出现在5-7月。利用Holt指数平滑法和Holt-Winter指数平滑法分别对赤潮事件的年发生频率和月发生频率进行预测,结果表明2013-2020年赤潮的年发生频率呈年平均增加1次的缓慢趋势上升,2013-2016年5-7月份为赤潮高发期,峰值出现在5月,基本稳定在25次左右。
Based on the annual frequency of red tides and the frequency of monthly occurrence of red tides from 2001 to 2012 in 1977-2012, the annual frequency of occurrence of red tide events and the frequency of monthly occurrence frequency are established. The annual incidence of red tide is better than that of time, and the seasonal maximum of monthly frequency is in May (about 18.22). The magnitude of stochastic fluctuation gradually increases with time series, and the peak of fluctuation mainly appears in 5-7 month. The annual and annual frequency of red tide events were predicted by the Holt index smoothing method and the Holt-Winter exponential smoothing method respectively. The results showed that the yearly frequency of red tides increased slowly from 2013 to 2020 with a year-on-year increase, and 2013 - From May to July 2016, there was a high incidence of red tide, the peak appeared in May, basically stable at about 25 times.