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目的:预测2008～2017年全国、城市和农村卫生技术人员数,为卫生部门合理地规划卫生人力配置提供参考依据。方法:以1981～2007年全国卫生技术人员数为基础数据,使用灰色预测模型对2008～2017年全国卫生技术人员发展趋势进行预测分析。结果:全国卫生技术人员总数呈逐年增长趋势,从2008年的4 864 117人增加至2017年的5 497 653人;全国的医生、护士、检验人员的平均增长速度分别为1.345%、2.957%和1.618%,而药剂人员则以0.058%的平均速度减少;结论:全国卫生技术人员总量达到并超过我国“十一五”规划对卫生技术人员的规划标准,城市与农村的卫生技术人员分布不合理,卫生技术人员专业结构不合理。
Objective: To forecast the number of health technicians in China, cities and rural areas from 2008 to 2017 and provide reference for the health authorities to rationally plan the allocation of health workers. Methods: Based on the data of national health technicians from 1981 to 2007, the gray forecasting model was used to predict the development trend of national health technicians from 2008 to 2017. Results: The total number of national health technicians has been increasing year by year, from 4 864 117 in 2008 to 5 497 653 in 2017. The average growth rates of doctors, nurses and examiners in the country are 1.345% and 2.957%, respectively 1.618%, while the pharmacy staff decreased at an average rate of 0.058%. Conclusion: The total number of national health technicians reached and exceeded the planning standards for health technicians in the 11th Five-Year Plan of China. The health technicians in urban and rural areas The distribution is not reasonable, and the professional structure of health technicians is unreasonable.