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过度政府债务通常是导致财政危机的直接原因。《马约》及《稳定与增长公约》(以下简称《稳约》)中对成员国财政赤字率和债务率的警戒线约束,并不能准确反映出政府债务危机和财政危机之间的分界线。因应经济运行波动幅度的提升,各国不仅需要寻求超越简化指标的控制方式,而且需要借鉴企业财务报表分析的经验,尝试建立基于政府财务报告体系的综合性债务预警指标体系。同时,各国还需提升中期预算和远期估计制度的弹性,使用较为简便且易行的预算分析方法,较之复杂的计量分析模型,或许更具现实的可操作性和更好的预警效果。
Excessive government debt is usually the direct cause of the financial crisis. The warning lines imposed on the fiscal deficit rates and debt ratios of member states in the Treaty of Maiten and Stability and Growth (“Stability Treaty”) do not accurately reflect the dividing line between the government debt crisis and the fiscal crisis . In response to the rising volatility of economic operation, all countries need not only to seek ways of control that go beyond simplified indicators, but also learn from the experience of corporate financial statements and try to establish a comprehensive debt warning indicator system based on the government’s financial reporting system. At the same time, countries need to enhance the flexibility of the medium-term budget and long-term estimation systems, using simpler and easier budget analysis methods, and perhaps more realistic maneuverability and better early warning effects than the complicated econometric models.