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一场围绕能源的新的大博弈即将来临。推动这一大变化的最主要力量是全球对于气候变化和能源安全的共同关注。在这场博弈中,国家利益在传统的市场规则中扮演越来越重要的角色。对于生产国和消费国来说,共同的挑战是认清互相依存的现实并为达成谅解而建立组织框架。中国目前的发展正锁定其能源消费模式从而带动未来数十年的能源需求。从消费角度来讲,中国、印度和美国在决定这场全球能源博弈规则的过程中,将扮演最重要的角色。资源民族主义的崛起以及全球寻找能源的行为,正迫使每个国家重新考虑各自的外交政策以及联盟关系。国家石油企业正寻求私营石油公司的技术,二者需要建立起与过去不同的新型合作关系。气候变化和能源安全带来的大变化大挑战,是这场能源大博弈的所有参与者都要面对的。关键在于创建可转化为互相信任和依存关系的利益平衡的理解框架。
A new big game around energy is coming. The main force driving this big change is the global concern about climate change and energy security. In this game, national interests play an increasingly important role in the traditional rules of the market. The common challenge for both producing and consuming countries is to recognize the reality of interdependence and establish an organizational framework for understanding. China’s current development is locking its energy consumption pattern and driving the energy demand for decades to come. From a consumer perspective, China, India and the United States will play the most important roles in determining the rules of the global energy game. The rise of resource nationalism and the global search for energy are forcing each country to reconsider its own foreign policy and alliances. National oil companies are seeking the technology of private oil companies, both of which need to establish new partnerships of a different kind from the past. The big challenge of big changes brought about by climate change and energy security is that all participants in this big energy game have to face. The key is to create a framework for understanding the balance of interests that translates into mutual trust and dependence.