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以气候变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化是世界各国共同面对的重大问题之一,对碳排放与经济增长关系的探讨有助于碳减排目标的实现。基于2000—2012年各省(自治区、直辖市)碳排放与经济增长的面板数据,构建碳排放与经济增长的实证模型,并采用面板分位数回归、不同时间段和分区域的数据进行稳健性检验,研究结果表明:①碳排放对地区经济增长产生显著的正向作用,当前我国仍需重视能源在经济增长中的重要作用和贡献,大力提升能源利用效率、提高单位碳排放带来的经济增长水平,是未来努力的方向。②碳排放对经济增长具有异质性,较小和较大的碳排放规模对经济增长的促进作用较低,处于中等水平的碳排放水平对促进经济增长的作用最大。③从时间趋势来看,碳排放对经济增长的弹性呈现由小到大的变化趋势,单位数量的碳排放增长能够支撑更高水平的经济增长;从区域差异来看,碳排放对经济增长的促进效果呈现“东部最高、中部次之、西部最弱”的特征。
The global climate change characterized by global warming is one of the major issues that the countries of the world face together. The discussion of the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth contributes to the realization of the goal of reducing carbon emissions. Based on the panel data of carbon emission and economic growth in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) from 2000 to 2012, an empirical model of carbon emissions and economic growth was constructed. The panel quantile regression, data of different time periods and sub-regions were used to test the robustness , The results show that: (1) Carbon emissions play a significant positive role in regional economic growth. At present, China still needs to pay attention to the important role and contribution of energy in economic growth, vigorously promote energy efficiency and increase economic growth brought by carbon emissions per unit. The level of future efforts is the direction. (2) Carbon emissions are heterogeneous to economic growth. Small and large carbon emissions have less effect on economic growth. Carbon emissions at a moderate level have the greatest impact on economic growth. ③ From a time trend perspective, the elasticity of carbon emissions to economic growth shows a trend of small to large changes, and the increase of carbon emissions per unit quantity can support a higher level of economic growth. From a regional perspective, the effect of carbon emissions on economic growth The promotion effect shows the characteristics of “the highest in the east, the second in the middle and the weakest in the west.”