我国经济有望平稳增长

• 作 者: 张立群
• 机 构: 国务院发展研究中心,
• 出 处: 宏观经济管理
• 发表日期: 2012年09期
• 关键词: 年经济增长率 筑底 需求数据 企稳 经济增长 固定资产投资 三四 经济增长潜力 经济现代化 要素成本

今年上半年,我国GDP增长率为7.8%,其中,一季度为8.1%,二季度为7.6%。尽管经济增长呈现回落态势,但筑底企稳的迹象已开始显现,特别是1～7月固定资产投资(不含农户)同比增长20.4%,增速与1～6月持平,较1～5月提高0.3个百分点。从需求数据看,经济增速下行过程已基本结束,三四季度经济增长率可能在二季度水平上保持稳定或略有提高,全年经济增长率有望保持在7.5%～8%之间。

In the first half of this year, China’s GDP growth rate was 7.8%, of which 8.1% in the first quarter and 7.6% in the second quarter. Although the economic growth shows a downward trend, the signs of stabilization of the bottoms have begun to appear. In particular, fixed asset investment (excluding farm households) for the first seven months of July increased by 20.4% over the same period of the preceding year. The growth rate is in line with that in January-June, Increase by 0.3 percentage points. Judging from the demand data, the downward trend in economic growth has basically come to an end. The economic growth rate in the 34th quarter may remain stable or slightly increase in the second quarter, and the annual economic growth rate is expected to remain at between 7.5% and 8%.