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本文根据哈尔滨市二十未年的流脑疫情及有关资料分析总结了该疾病发生、发展、流行和停息的变化规律,建立了系统动态的自适应非线性数学予报模型。采用现代控制论方法作末知参数辨识。提出以流行前期实际发病专率予测流行期及高峰期的发病率。编制了应用软件和使用了快速数字电子计算机。经计算实例验证,与静态予报比较效果更为满意。
Based on the twenty-year-old meningitis in Harbin and the related data, this paper summarizes the changing rules of the occurrence, development, prevalence and halt of the disease, and builds an adaptive nonlinear mathematical forecasting model of system dynamics. Adopting modern cybernetics method for final parameter identification. Put forward the prevalence of the actual incidence of prehospitalization to predict the prevalence and peak incidence. Developed application software and used a fast digital electronic computer. The calculation example shows that the result is more satisfactory than the static report.