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以干旱区开都河-孔雀河流域为例,利用改进的相对资源承载力模型,计算2000-2011年该流域的相对资源人口承载力和相对资源经济承载力,探讨流域内6个县市相对资源承载力的时空演变过程及差异特征。研究表明:1)以巴音郭楞蒙古族自治州(简称巴州)为参照区域,经济资源和土地资源是承载开都河-孔雀河流域可持续发展的主要资源,而水资源对于开都河-孔雀河流域人口和经济的承载能力相对较弱。2)近十年来开都河-孔雀河流域相对资源人口承载状态为非常富余,人口富余度由2000年的7.4%演变为2011年的2.8%;经济承载状态由严重超载转变为超载,经济超载度由2000年的5.1%演变为2011年的2.4%,其中受库尔勒市的经济严重超载度的影响作用巨大。3)从时间和空间的角度分析,开都河-孔雀河流域各县市的相对资源综合经济承载状态具有一定的稳定性,人口承载力呈现出各自的差异变化。4)依据相对资源承载力的匹配类型,将开都河-孔雀河流域6个县、市分为四类区域,并基于不同县、市的发展实际提出相应的可持续发展策略,为协调开都河-孔雀河流域的人口流动与经济布局提供决策参考,为整个塔里木河流域的绿洲可持续发展提供借鉴指导。
Taking the Kaidu River-Peacock River Basin as an example, this paper uses the improved relative resource carrying capacity model to calculate the relative population carrying capacity and relative economic carrying capacity of resources in this basin from 2000 to 2011, The Temporal and Spatial Evolution Process and Difference Characteristics of Resource Carrying Capacity. The research shows that: 1) According to the Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture (referred to as Bazhou) as a reference area, the economic resources and land resources are the main resources for sustainable development of the Kai Du River - Peacock River Basin, while the water resources for the Kaidu River - Peacock River basin population and economic carrying capacity is relatively weak. 2) The relative carrying capacity of the resources of the Kaidu River-Peacock River Basin in the recent 10 years is very surplus. The population surplus has evolved from 7.4% in 2000 to 2.8% in 2011; the economic carrying status has changed from serious overloading to overloading, The rate of change from 5.1% in 2000 evolved to 2.4% in 2011, of which Korla City, due to the impact of a serious economic overhaul. 3) From the perspective of time and space, the comprehensive economic carrying status of relative resources in the Kaidu River-Peacock River Basin has a certain stability, and the carrying capacity of the population shows its own differences and changes. 4) Based on the matching types of relative resource carrying capacity, the 6 counties and cities in the Kaidu River-Peacock River Basin are divided into 4 types of areas. Based on the actual development of different counties and cities, corresponding sustainable development strategies are proposed, Du River - Peacock River basin population flow and economic layout to provide decision-making reference for the sustainable development of the entire Tarim River Oasis provide guidance.