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GDP作为观测一个国家和地区经济状况的重要指标,能够有效展示出一个国家或地区经济状况的完整图像,帮助判断经济发展趋势及走向。本文以北京市1978~2014年GDP数据为样本,建立了ARMA(2,1)模型,并在模型基础上预测了北京市2015-2018年GDP数据,旨在为人们客观认识北京市GDP的变化走向和为政府制定经济发展战略和政府作出最终的决策提供依据。
As an important indicator for observing the economic conditions of a country and the region, GDP can effectively display a complete picture of the economic conditions of a country or region and help determine the trend and trend of economic development. Based on the GDP data from 1978 to 2014 in Beijing, this paper establishes the ARMA (2,1) model and forecasts the 2015-2018 GDP data of Beijing on the basis of the model, aiming to objectively understand the changes of Beijing’s GDP And to provide the basis for the government to formulate economic development strategies and make the final decisions of the government.