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突变性是水文时间序列重要特征。秦岭南北地区水文水资源系统的演变规律有较强的差异,突变及其形成的物理机制有很多异同点,因此系统分析本地区水资源突变性特征有重要意义。本文采用小波分析方法对比分析了秦岭南北年径流和最大径流量的变化周期,研究表明:虽然有秦岭气候分界线的存在,但两侧河流变化的差异性不很明显,秦岭南北径流都在逐年减少,尤其是1992年以来减少幅度很大,年径流量减少到历史最低水平;同时使用Mann-kendall非参数突变检验方法检测秦岭南北河流天然径流量的突变年份,结果表明径流的突变年份基本一致,但是显著程度略有差别,主要在1991-1993年发生了突变,这些突变与北半球气候突变具有一致性,人类活动并不是导致这次突变的原因。
Mutation is an important feature of hydrological time series. There is a strong difference between the evolution of hydrological and water resources systems in the north and south regions of the Qinling Mountains. There are many similarities and differences in the mechanism of the mutations and the formation of physical mechanisms. Therefore, it is of great significance to systematically analyze the abrupt nature of water resources in this region. In this paper, wavelet transform is used to analyze the annual and annual runoff and maximum runoff in Qinling Mountains. The results show that although there is a boundary line of Qinling Mountains, the difference of the rivers on both sides is not obvious, Especially since 1992. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric mutation test is also used to detect the abrupt years of natural runoff in the north and south rivers of the Qinling Mountains. The results show that the year of abrupt change of runoff is basically the same , But with a slight difference in significance. The major mutations occurred in 1991-1993. These mutations are consistent with the climate change in the northern hemisphere. Human activities are not the cause of this mutation.