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本文阐述了根据我国提出的设计洪水期望概率的普遍计算公式而采用统计试验技术计算洪水期望概率的方法,並对长江三峡工程设计洪水的期望概率进行了计算.结果表明,长江三峡工程千年及万年一遇设计洪水的期望概率都接近或略小于设计频率.这不仅说明了该设计洪水确实达到了预定的安全标准,同时也有力地论证了该设计洪水的合理性和可靠性.
This paper presents a method to calculate the expected probability of flood using the statistical test technique according to the universal formula for predicting the expected flood probability in China and calculates the expected probability of the design flood of the Yangtze River Three Gorges Project.The results show that for the Three Gorges Project The expected annual probability of a design flood is close to or slightly less than the design frequency, which not only shows that the design flood does meet the predetermined safety standards, but also proves the rationality and reliability of the design flood.