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一、基本模型及变量选取房地产贷款的历史数据取自人民银行调查统计司,采用季度数据,时间跨度是从2001年第1季度至2009年第4季度。这里我们所考虑的主要影响因素包括:国内生产总值、城镇居民人均可支配收入、农村居民人均纯收入、商品房销售均价、城镇化水平(城镇居民占总人口比重)、人口红利(15-64岁人口占总人口比重)和上证综合指数。国内生产总值
First, the basic model and variable selection of real estate loans historical data from the People’s Bank of Surveying and Statistics Division, using quarterly data, the time span is from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2009. The main factors that we consider here are: gross domestic product, per capita disposable income of urban residents, per capita net income of rural residents, average selling price of commercial housing, urbanization level (proportion of urban residents to total population), demographic dividend (15- 64-year-old population share of the total population) and the Shanghai Composite Index. GDP