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巴菲特曾经谈到一个著名的思维实验:6个弹孔的左轮手枪里只有1颗子弹,让你对着自己的脑袋开枪,给100万美元,你干吗?面对巴菲特的问题,答案自然是有的人愿意照着自己的脑袋开一枪,有的人则不愿意。很多人坚决地说,我不干,给我1000万美元都不干。为什么不愿意呢?自然因为这些人没有这100万美元也生活得不错,一旦开枪转到了那颗子弹,代价过于惨重。那些说“我愿意”的人,理由也很简单:冒着六分之一的风险,可以改变人生。那么,我们把这个例子的条件再换一下。现在,这把手枪有100个弹孔,里边只有1颗子弹。对着脑袋开枪,还是一枪100万美元,但是,每多开一枪,你就能多拿100万美元,你敢开99枪还打不死自己,你就差不多是个亿万富翁了。这次,愿意开枪的人肯定比上次的多了,因为付出代价的概率大大下降了。但是,能
Buffett once talked about a well-known thinking experiment: there are only 1 bullet in a revolver with 6 bullet holes, so that you can shoot at your head for 1 million U.S. dollars. What are you doing? In the face of Buffett’s question, the answer is of course Some people are willing to open a shot in their own head, while others are unwilling. Many people are resolutely saying that I do not do it and give me 10 million U.S. dollars. Why do not you want to? Naturally, because these people did not live well for the one million U.S. dollars, it would have cost them too much if they fired the bullet. The reasons for those who say “I do ” are also simple: risking one-sixth the risk can change your life. Well, let’s change the conditions of this example. Now, this pistol has 100 bullet holes, only 1 bullet inside. In front of the head shot, or shot one million US dollars, but each shot, you can get one million US dollars, you dare to open 99 gun can not kill themselves, you are almost a billionaire. This time, the number of people who are willing to shoot is certainly more than the last one, because the probability of paying a price has dropped significantly. But yes