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本文对山东省临沂市１９６５～１９８６年（１９８０年除外）共２１年的历史观测数据级值进行了数量分析，建立了第二代玉米螟有虫株率的５个级值判别数学模型。经回报验证，其历史符合率达１００％。将１９８７年、１９８８年观测数据级值作为独立样本进行试报，其预报准确率达１００％。为农业害虫发生程度的中长期预测预报提供了一种新的研究方法。
In this paper, the historical data of 21 years in Linyi City of Shandong Province from 1965 to 1986 (except 1980) were quantitatively analyzed, and the mathematic model of the second grade Ostrinia furnacalis was established. After verification, its historical compliance rate of 100%. The 1987 and 1988 observation data grade value as a separate sample for trial reporting, the forecast accuracy rate of 100%. It provides a new research method for medium and long term forecast of agricultural pest occurrence.