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洞庭湖区是中国的重要商品粮基地,也是长江流域重要的农产品产业区。本文利用2003～2007年气象数据及全国第二次土壤普查相关资料,按照光、温、水、土逐级递减的过程,采用逐级递减法,对水稻生产力不同预测方法进行了对比研究。结果显示:2003～2007年实际产量均值为5904 kg/hm2,逐级计算光温潜力法所得的均值为7808.072 kg/hm2;而基于FAO-AEZ方法计算的晚稻生产力5年均值仅为5687.45 kg/hm2,小于实测产量。基于逐级计算光温潜力的预测模型比较适合洞庭湖区域的晚稻生产潜力预测。晚稻生产力空间分布研究结果表明,洞庭湖区晚稻生产潜力呈现由西北向东南递减的过渡趋势,中高产区主要集中于常德市所属的澧县、安乡、汉寿和临澧一带,低产区则多分布于长沙市、益阳市和岳阳市等几个区域所属县市;洞庭湖区整体的水稻生产潜力偏低,低产潜力区域达到45%,通过各种耕作措施进一步增产的空间较大。
Dongting Lake area is China’s important commodity grain base, but also an important agricultural product industrial zone in the Yangtze River Basin. Based on the meteorological data from 2003 to 2007 and the data of the second national soil census, the paper makes a contrastive study on the different forecast methods of rice productivity using the stepwise decreasing method according to the gradual descending process of light, temperature, water and soil. The results showed that the average output of 5905 kg / hm2 from 2003 to 2007 was 7808.072 kg / hm2. The 5-year average of productivity of late rice based on FAO-AEZ method was only 5687.45 kg / hm2, less than the measured output. Prediction of Potential Productivity of Late Rice Suitable for Dongting Lake Region Based on the Prediction Model of Calculating Light and Temperature Potential Level by Level. The spatial distribution of late rice productivity showed that the potential productivity of late rice in Dongting Lake presented a transition trend from northwest to southeast. The middle and high yielding areas mainly concentrated in the areas of Shexian, Anxiang, Hanshou and Linqu which belong to Changde, It is located in the counties and cities of Changsha, Yiyang and Yueyang. The overall potential for rice production in Dongting Lake is low, reaching 45% of the potential for low-yielding potential. There is much room for further stimulation through various tillage measures.