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针对农业污染的立体交叉特征及对中国生态环境退化的负面影响,首先,本文借鉴GML方法测度了纳入环境因素后的中国农业生产率,从生产率的角度考察农业增长与农业环境的关系,从而拓展了传统环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC);其次,本文基于中国省级面板数据,采用包括动态GMM在内的多种方法对两者的关系进行识别,同时采用门限回归模型有条件EKC的形成机制。研究发现,农业增长与环境生产率之间存在稳定的“正u型”曲线关系,农业EKC在中国基本得到支持;但是,中国大部分地区仍然处于随经济发展而农业环境生产率下降的阶段。而且,EKC发生是有条件的,存在一定的门限效应,即农业技术进步对于“正U型”曲线形成和环境生产率提升起到关键作用。
In view of the three-dimensional characteristics of agricultural pollution and its negative impact on the degradation of China’s ecological environment, firstly, this paper draws lessons from the GML method to measure China’s agricultural productivity after environmental factors, examines the relationship between agricultural growth and agricultural environment from the productivity point of view, thus expanding Traditional Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Secondly, based on Chinese provincial panel data, this paper uses a variety of methods, including dynamic GMM, to identify the relationship between the two. At the same time, using the threshold regression model conditional EKC formation mechanism . The study found that there is a stable “positive u-shaped” curve relationship between agricultural growth and environmental productivity, and agricultural EKC is basically supported in China. However, most of China is still in a stage where economic productivity will decline as a result of economic development. Moreover, the occurrence of EKC is conditional, and there is a certain threshold effect that agricultural technological progress plays a key role in the formation of a positive U-shaped curve and in the improvement of environmental productivity.