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对原油价格的长期运动,特别是对1973—74年原油价格的种种提高,已经提出了许多解释。在对实际争论的问题进行评价时,留心注意各种观点所依据的理论,并比较各种争论方法的解释力,颇能增长见识。考察各种方法的理论背景,允许离析出最主要的实际假设,或在推理的链条中找出脆弱的环节。我们首先考虑通常建立在自然资源稀缺理论基础上的油价暴涨的解释。从根本上看,这种解释是以这样的观点为基础的,即价格由需求和既定的供给之间的相互作用确定。这是一种边际主义的解释。有趣的是,一种原因不明的相似的结论——实际油价上升的长期趋势
Long-term movements in the price of crude oil, notably the various increases in crude oil prices in 1973-74, have come up with many explanations. In appraising the issues in actual debate, paying careful attention to the theories on which various opinions are based, and comparing the explanatory power of various methods of argument, are rather capable of increasing their knowledge. Examining the theoretical context of the various approaches allows for the isolation of the most important real hypotheses or the framing of links in inferential chains. We first consider the explanation for soaring oil prices that are usually based on the scarcity of natural resources. Fundamentally, this explanation is based on the notion that prices are determined by the interaction between demand and established supply. This is a marginal explanation. Interestingly, a similar conclusion of unknown cause - the long-term trend of rising real oil prices