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利用中国1952~2012年全国、城镇以及农村居民实际人均消费数据,在三种不同的效用函数形式下,基于CF滤波得到的消费波动率对中国经济波动的福利成本进行了测算。研究结果表明:只要保证参数选取合理,即符合微观经济个体的理性行为,则无论采用何种形式的效用函数,对中国经济波动福利成本的定量分析均是有效的;利用CF滤波得到的消费波动率远小于传统的时间去趋和HP滤波等方法得到的消费波动率,更具稳健性,避免了传统方法可能会产生与事实相悖的问题;尽管中国经济波动的福利成本非常低,仅为0.1%,但却是美国福利成本的2.7倍,因此进一步降低中国福利损失的政府宏观调控政策仍然具有作用空间;经济波动对中国城镇居民造成的福利损失一般大于对农村居民造成的福利损失,这给政府政策制定和调整带来了一定的启示。
Based on the actual per capita consumption data of China, urban and rural residents from 1952 to 2012 in China, the welfare costs of China’s economic fluctuations were calculated based on the consumption volatility obtained through CF filtering under three different utility functions. The results show that as long as the reasonable selection of guarantee parameters is in line with the rational behavior of microeconomic individuals, no matter what form of utility function is used, the quantitative analysis of the welfare cost of economic fluctuation in China is effective. Consumption volatility The rate of consumption is far less than the traditional time-to-go and HP-filtered consumption volatility, which is more robust and avoids the problem that the traditional method may produce a contradiction with the facts. Although the welfare cost of China’s economic fluctuations is very low, only 0.1 %, But it is 2.7 times the cost of welfare in the United States. Therefore, government macro-control policies that further reduce the welfare loss in China still have a role to play; the economic loss caused by the economic losses to urban residents in China is generally greater than the loss to rural residents, which gives Government policy formulation and adjustment brought some enlightenment.