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通过面板矩估计、脉冲响应函数分析、方差分解及地区差异性分析等研究方法,实证分析了我国35个大中城市房价波动对地区经济增长的影响。结果发现:房价波动会使地区经济增长在短时期内出现正向变动,而在长期内正向影响趋于消失;房价波动通过对城市人口数量的影响间接带动房地产投资,进而影响地区经济的增长,且持续性强;房价上涨对地区经济增长的影响具有显著的地区差异性,二线城市所受影响最为强烈,三线城市次之,一线城市最小,但一线城市房价波动对经济增长呈持续的负向影响。
By means of panel moment estimation, impulse response function analysis, variance decomposition and regional difference analysis, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of house price fluctuations on the regional economic growth in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China. The result shows that the volatility of housing prices will lead to a positive change in regional economic growth in a short period of time, while the positive impact will tend to disappear in the long run. Fluctuation in housing prices indirectly affects real estate investment by affecting the urban population, , And sustained strong; the impact of rising house prices on regional economic growth has significant regional differences, the second-tier cities are the most affected, followed by the third-tier cities, the smallest cities, but the first-tier cities, the volatility of housing prices continued negative for economic growth To influence.