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为明确西南地区气候变暖前后春玉米生长季内不利气象条件的时空演变特征,本文采用西南地区27个农业气象站点1981-2010年的发育期资料和66个气象站点的1961-2010年的逐日气象资料,分析气候变暖前后西南春玉米生长季内连阴天、高温、低温及水分盈亏发生的时空分布特征。研究结果表明:(1)西南地区春玉米生长季内,连阴天主要发生在出苗-七叶和七叶-抽穗阶段,变暖后发生频率分别平均增加12%和15%,但仅11%和14%的研究站点显著增加(P<0.05);(2)高温天气主要发生在乳熟-成熟阶段,且主要集中在东北部地区,变暖后发生天数每生长季平均减少2.5d,23%的站点高温发生的天数显著减少(P<0.05);低温天气在整个生长季均有发生,变暖后低温出现天数每生长季平均减少2.2d,其中七叶-抽穗阶段低温发生天数减少最为显著,56%的站点发生天数显著减少(P<0.05);(3)水分亏缺主要发生在播种-拔节阶段,变暖后轻、中度水分亏缺发生频率分别增加6%和7%;春玉米各个生长阶段均受不同程度的水分盈余影响,但主要表现为轻度盈余,除西北部外,变暖后轻度水分盈余发生频率增加15%,播种-拔节和灌浆-成熟阶段21%和11%的研究站点轻度水分盈余显著增加(P<0.05)。总体来看,变暖后西南地区春玉米生长季高温、低温发生天数减少,对玉米生长有利,但连阴天以及水分盈亏发生频率增加,可导致玉米品质下降和产量减少。
In order to clarify the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of unfavorable meteorological conditions during the spring corn growing season before and after the warming in Southwest China, this paper uses the data of the developmental stages of 27 agricultural meteorological stations in Southwest China from 1981 to 2010 and the daily data of 66 weather stations from 1961 to 2010 Meteorological data to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of cloudy, high temperature, low temperature and moisture gain and loss in southwest spring corn growing season before and after the warming. The results showed that: (1) In the growing season of spring maize in southwest China, even the cloudy days occurred mainly in the emergence - seven leaves and the seven leaves - heading stage. After warming, the frequency increased 12% and 15% on average, but only 11% And 14% (P <0.05) respectively. (2) The hot weather occurred mainly in the milk-maturing stage and mainly concentrated in the northeastern part of China. After the warming, the average number of days decreased by 2.5 days per growing season (P <0.05). Low temperature weather occurred in the whole growing season. After warming, the number of cold days decreased by an average of 2.2 days per growing season, of which the decrease in the number of days of cold in the seven-leaf stage - heading stage was the most (P <0.05). (3) The water deficit mainly occurred in the sowing-jointing stage. After warming, the frequency of light and moderate water deficit increased by 6% and 7%, respectively. Spring maize growth stages are subject to varying degrees of water surplus, but mainly for the mild surpluses, except for the northwestern part, the frequency of mild water surges increased by 15% after warming, seeding-jointing and filling-maturing stage by 21% And 11% of the study sites showed a significant increase in mild water surplus (P <0.05). Overall, the number of days of high temperature and low temperature in the spring maize growing season decreased after warming, which is beneficial to the growth of maize. However, the increasing frequency of cloudy day and moisture gain and loss could lead to the decrease of corn quality and yield.