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本文通过对东亚各国经济波动之间的相互关系进行研究,利用东亚各国的数据试图验证Backus等人提出的一个国际经济周期当中存在的典型事实,结果发现,只有中国和韩国,中国和印度尼西亚,中国和台湾地区,中国和泰国的数据严格符合该典型事实;而且就东亚地区经济而言,中国对于其它国家的影响力较强,但是除了日本以外,中国受到其它东亚国家的影响较弱,因此可以发现中国在东亚经济体中处于主体地位,此外基于实证检验结果,对被检验模型提出了一些改进意见和建议。
By studying the interrelationship among economic fluctuations in East Asian countries and using the data from various East Asian countries to verify the typical facts of an international economic cycle proposed by Backus et al., This paper finds that only China, South Korea, China, Indonesia, China And the data from Taiwan, China and Thailand are strictly in line with this typical fact. Moreover, as far as East Asian economies are concerned, China has a strong influence on other countries, but China, apart from Japan, is less affected by other East Asian countries and therefore can Found that China was the dominant body in the East Asian economies. In addition, based on the empirical test results, some suggestions for improving the tested model were put forward.