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为深入探究飞行员违章行为的动态演化机制及发展规律,在分析飞行员违章行为与其影响因素间的因果关系的基础上,利用系统动力学(SD)原理构建违章行为演化SD模型。用Vensim软件对违章行为动态发展过程进行模拟仿真。结果表明,治理飞行员违章行为是一个分阶段的过程,抑制因素发挥作用具有延迟性和效用期。程序因素和处境意识因素以及与其有关的参数变动对飞行员违章行为演化影响较大。组织应重点关注与以上因素相关的环节或敏感参数。增大安全投入初始值,提高安全培训有效性,能使违章行为活跃水平达到最佳理想状态。组织应在适当时机针对行为演化状况调整管理手段和力度,制定最优策略。
In order to further explore the dynamic evolvement mechanism and development law of pilots’ illegal behavior, based on the analysis of the causal relationship between pilot’s illegal behavior and its influencing factors, SD model of illegal behavior evolvement was constructed by using system dynamics (SD) principle. Vensim software to simulate the dynamic development of illegal behavior. The result shows that it is a phased process to control the pilot’s illegal behavior, and the delay and the effective period of the inhibiting factor play a role. The procedural factors and situational awareness factors as well as their related parameters have a great influence on the pilots’ behavior of violating regulations. The organization should focus on the links or sensitive parameters related to the above factors. Increasing the initial value of safety inputs and improving the effectiveness of safety training will enable the optimal level of activity in violation of laws and regulations. The organization should, at the right time, adjust management tools and efforts to evolve the optimal strategy based on the behavioral evolution.