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目的比较ARIMA模型、BPNN模型和ARIMA-BPNN组合模型在我国手足口病月发病率预测中的应用效果,探讨预测手足口病发病率的优化模型。方法收集2008年5月至2014年12月我国手足口病月发病率资料,用Excel2007、Spss17.0、Eviews8.0和Matlab8.5拟合相应的模型,并用2014年7月-12月的数据评价模型的预测效果。结果 ARIMA模型、BPNN模型和ARIMA-BPNN组合模型拟合及预测的MRD,MSE,RMSE和MAE分别为19.072、2.655、2.852、0.182和16.483、7.246、2.692、0.166;9.031、2.559、1.600、0.009和10.210、2.655、1.629、0.103;7.397、1.207,1.099、0.068和7.847、1.234、1.111、0.074。结论 ARIMA-BPNN组合模型拟合及预测效果优于ARIMA模型和BPNN模型。
Objective To compare the effect of ARIMA model, BPNN model and ARIMA-BPNN combined model in predicting the monthly incidence of HFMD in China, and to explore the optimal model for predicting the incidence of HFMD. Methods The monthly incidence rate of HFMD in China from May 2008 to December 2014 was collected. The corresponding models were fitted with Excel2007, Spss17.0, Eviews8.0 and Matlab8.5, and the data from July to December in 2014 Estimate the predictive effect of the model. Results The fitted and predicted MRD, MSE, RMSE and MAE of ARIMA model, BPNN model and ARIMA-BPNN combined model were 19.072,2.655,2.852,0.182 and 16.483,7.246,2.692,0.166 respectively; 9.031,2.559,1.600,0.009 and 10.299, 2.068, 7.847, 1.234, 1.111, 0.074. Conclusion ARIMA-BPNN combination model fitting and prediction better than ARIMA model and BPNN model.