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目的科学、合理、有效地开展预防控制工作,降低甲型H1N1流感发生和危害。方法应用描述流行病学方法,对2009年7月-2010年1月本市疫情进行分析,预测2010年冬春季甲型H1N1流感疫情形势。结果本市共报告甲型H1N1流感病例1 056例,均为确诊病例。重危症占3.22%,低于全国水平(6.11%);病死率为0.85%,略高于全国水平(0.54%)。发病高峰为9-10月份,占病例总数的77.27%。发病年龄以青少年组(6~17岁)最多,占55.84%;职业以学生为主,占71.78%。结论在毒株不发生变异的情况下,依据病原学、免疫学、疾病流行特点和规律以及人群感染状况等,结合前期甲型H1N1流感防控工作积累的经验,预测今冬明春本市不会出现甲型H1N1流感的大流行,但不排除局部暴发疫情出现;人群聚集单位仍为防控工作重点;随着寒假和春节临近,大批学生和外出务工人员返乡,农村人口发病水平可能呈现上升趋势。
Objective To carry out prevention and control work in a scientific, rational and effective manner to reduce the occurrence and harm of influenza A (H1N1). Methods Epidemiological methods were used to analyze the epidemic situation of the city from July 2009 to January 2010 and predict the epidemic situation of influenza A and H1N1 in winter and spring of 2010. Results A total of 1 056 cases of Influenza A (H1N1) were reported in the city, which were confirmed cases. Critically ill patients accounted for 3.22%, lower than the national average (6.11%); the case fatality rate was 0.85%, slightly higher than the national average (0.54%). The peak incidence of 9-10 months, accounting for 77.27% of the total number of cases. The age of onset in the adolescent group (6-17 years old) was the most, accounting for 55.84%; occupation was student-oriented, accounting for 71.78%. Conclusion Based on the etiology, immunology, characteristics and laws of disease epidemic and population infection, combined with the experience accumulated in prevention and control of Influenza A (H1N1) in the case of non-mutated strains, it is predicted that this city will not A pandemic of the H1N1 influenza emerges but the outbreak of a local outbreak is not ruled out. The crowd gathering units are still the focus of prevention and control. As winter vacation and Spring Festival are approaching, a large number of students and returning migrant workers return home, and the incidence of rural population may show an upward trend trend.