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当前,中国经济所面临的主要问题如经济增长减速,主要产生于供给侧因素而不是需求侧因素,因此,采取刺激总需求的方式难以取得健康可持续的经济增长。经济增长减速是因人口红利消失所导致的潜在增长率下降所致,实际增长率与潜在增长率之间不存在缺口。因此,也就不存在一个经济增速回归潜在增长率,或实现“V”型反弹的机会。然而值得期待的是,如果遵从经济发展新常态的大逻辑,正确判断形势,推进全面深化改革,释放的改革红利将能平缓潜在增长率的下降,甚至在一定时期企稳。也就是说,中国经济有望在近中期和长期表现出两个“L”型增长轨迹,帮助中国顺利跨越中等收入阶段,实现全面建成小康社会的目标。
At present, the main problems China’s economy faces such as the slowdown in its economic growth mainly result from supply-side rather than demand-side factors. Therefore, it is difficult to achieve healthy and sustainable economic growth by stimulating aggregate demand. The slowdown in economic growth is due to a drop in the potential growth rate resulting from the demographic dividend disappearing, with no gap between actual and potential growth rates. Therefore, there is no chance of economic growth returning to a potential growth rate or achieving a “V” rebound. However, it is worth looking forward to that if we follow the great logic of the new normal of economic development, correctly judge the situation and push forward with all-round deepening of reform, the reform bonus released will calm down the potential growth rate and even stabilize for a certain period of time. In other words, the Chinese economy is expected to show two “L” -type growth trajectories in the medium to long term and help China to smoothly cross the middle-income stage and achieve the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way.