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一、主要经济发展指标及其预测1.农业生产可望获得平年年景。夏粮(包括小麦、早稻)播种面积与上年基本持平,但由于小麦主产区在收获季节出现较大范围的自然灾害,因此夏粮产量可能比去年减少;秋粮播种面积减少约1000多万亩,下降1%左右,产量将相应减少。在这种情况下,要完成全年粮食总产量8500—8600亿斤的计划目标,需要付出较大的努力。但棉花、油料等经济作物将大幅增产,林、牧、副、渔各业也将增产。因此,预计全年农业总产值有可能达到计划安排的增长3.5%的目标。
I. Main Economic Indicators and Their Forecasts 1. Agricultural production is expected to be on an equal footing. The sown area of summer grains (including wheat and early rice) remained basically the same as that of the previous year. However, due to the large-scale natural disasters in the main growing areas of wheat during the harvesting season, the output of summer grains may be reduced compared with that of last year; the sown area of autumn grains is reduced by about 10 million mu, Decline of about 1%, the output will be reduced accordingly. Under such circumstances, we must make greater efforts to accomplish the planned target of 8500-8600 billion kg of grain output for the year. However, cash crops such as cotton and oilseeds will increase sharply, and the output of forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and fisheries will also increase. Therefore, it is estimated that the annual agricultural output may reach the planned growth target of 3.5%.