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国内经济增速、物价与企业利润走低,以及金融监管可能“挤出”而非“挤入”实体企业融资,使得今年下半年国债收益率有望温和回落。从2016年年底开始,一行三会开始加强金融监管,以改变“金融空转”与“脱实入虚”的现象,防范金融系统性风险。一行三会在强监管方面集体行动的叠加,对货币市场与债券市场产生了巨大影响。货币市场上,7天回购利率已经由去年低点的不到2.3%上升至目前的3.4%左右,且在今年3月一度突破5.0%;债券市场上,10年期国债收益率已经由去年低点的不到2.7%上升至目前的3.6%—3.7%。
Domestic economic growth, lower prices and corporate profits, and financial regulation may “squeeze out” rather than “squeeze in” real corporate finance, making the bond yields in the second half of this year expected to moderate down. Starting from the end of 2016, one or three banks will start to step up their financial supervision so as to change the phenomenon of “financial spin-off” and “deconsolidation into real” and guard against systemic risks in the financial sector. The superposition of collective actions by the three or three parties in the area of strong regulation has a tremendous impact on the money market and the bond market. In the money market, the 7-day repo rate has risen to 3.4% from the current low of 2.3% last year and surpassed 5.0% in March this year. On the bond market, the yield on 10-year government bonds has risen from last year Less than 2.7% of the lows rose to the current 3.6% -3.7%.