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本文基于水足迹的基本理论和方法,测算了2003年至2009年全国农区主要省(区)的畜牧业水资源承载力。同时构建了畜牧业水资源可持续利用指标,分析农区主要省(区)畜牧业持续发展的潜力。研究结果表明:①南方农区的大部分省(区)及北方农区中的黑龙江、吉林、辽宁和安徽属于水资源盈余地区,有条件扩大畜牧业生产规模;北方农区的河北、河南和山东一直处于水赤字的状态,应对畜牧业生产进行调整;②安徽、江西、湖北、广东、广西、重庆、四川、贵州和云南的畜牧业水资源不可持续,虽然现阶段水盈余量还较大,但应密切关注水盈余的变化情况,并适当控制畜牧业的发展速度;③在考虑灰水的情况下,辽宁、吉林的水资源不可持续的风险较高,应适当调整种植业结构,增加有机肥使用;不考虑灰水的情况下,湖南的水资源不可持续的风险较高,应降低畜牧业发展速度。
Based on the basic theory and method of water footprint, this paper estimates the carrying capacity of livestock husbandry water resources in major agricultural provinces (regions) in China from 2003 to 2009. At the same time, the index of sustainable utilization of livestock husbandry water resources was constructed and the potential of livestock husbandry development in major provinces (districts) of the rural areas was analyzed. The results show that: (1) Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and Anhui in most of the southern rural areas and the northern rural areas belong to the surplus water resources areas, and have the conditions to expand the production scale of animal husbandry; the northern rural areas of Hebei, Henan and Shandong has been in a water deficit state and livestock husbandry production should be adjusted. The livestock husbandry water resources in Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Guangdong, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan are not sustainable. Although the water surplus is still large at this stage , We should pay close attention to the changes of water surpluses and properly control the rate of development of animal husbandry. (3) Considering the situation of gray water, the risks of unsustainable water resources in Liaoning and Jilin are relatively high. The planting structure should be properly adjusted to increase Organic fertilizer use; without considering the case of gray water, the higher the risk of unsustainable water resources in Hunan, should reduce the pace of development of animal husbandry.