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以春玉米的生理生态发育过程为基础,基于作物生理发育时间恒定原理,建立了可推广应用的作物发育期模拟模型。本文充分考虑光、温、水对作物生育进程的综合影响,设计了基于气候适宜度来动态确定作物生理发育日数的算法,为模型的大范围推广应用奠定了基础。利用东北地区农业气象站2009、2010年观测资料对模型进行了分析和验证,模型运行结果与实际观测情况比较吻合,全生育期的均方根误差(root mean square error,简称RMSE)为3.8d,营养生长阶段发育期模拟结果的相关系数在0.84以上,生殖生长阶段发育期模拟结果的相关系数在0.77以上。模型生物学意义明确、精度较高、数据易获、可操作性强,能够在农业气象业务服务中应用于玉米生育进程的模拟与预测。
Based on the process of physiological and ecological development of spring maize, a simulation model of crop development stage was established based on the principle of constant crop physiological development. This paper fully considers the comprehensive effects of light, temperature and water on the crop growth process and designs an algorithm to dynamically determine crop physiological development days based on climate suitability, which lays the foundation for the wide application of the model. The model was analyzed and verified by using the observation data of agricultural weather stations in Northeast China in 2009 and 2010, and the results of model operation were in good agreement with the actual observations. The root mean square error (RMSE) during the whole growth period was 3.8 days , The correlation coefficient of the simulation results in the vegetative growth stage was above 0.84, and the correlation coefficient of the simulation results in the reproductive growth stage was above 0.77. The model biology has clear meaning, high precision, easy data acquisition and operability. It can be applied to the simulation and forecast of maize growth process in agrometeorological service.