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结合相关统计方法,对城市火灾在空间尺度(损失规模)上及时间尺度上的分布特点进行了分析,发现城市火灾在空间尺度上具有幂律分布特征,而在时间尺度上具有指数分布特征.根据自组织临界性的判断准则,认为城市火灾并不具有严格的自组织临界性特征.另外,根据城市火灾空间尺度上的幂律分布特征,运用极值统计方法,建立了城市火灾发生概率与其规模尺度的相关性模型,并以合肥市为案例进行了分析,预测了合肥市未来重特大火灾可能的发生概率.
Combining with relevant statistical methods, the distribution features of urban fire on the spatial scale (scale of loss) and on time scales are analyzed. It is found that city fire has the power law distribution feature on the spatial scale and the exponential distribution on the time scale. According to the judging criteria of self-organized criticality, it is considered that city fire does not have strict self-organized criticality characteristics.According to the power-law distribution of spatial scale of urban fire and the extreme value statistical method, the probability of urban fire occurrence is compared with Scale-scale correlation model, and Hefei as a case analysis, forecasting the future probability of serious fire in Hefei.