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目的:探讨构建急性百草枯(PQ)中毒早期预后评价方法。方法:在APACHEⅡ急性生理学评分、年龄评分和慢性健康状况评分基础上,增加服毒量、尿检PQ浓度、白细胞计数(WBC)、碱剩余(BE)绝对值及服毒-入院时间5个指标的评分,构建急性PQ中毒预后评价方法。建立回归方程,把患者评分值代入回归方程,计算患者死亡风险,与实际病死率比较以验证评价方法的可靠性。结果:71例患者通过评价方法评分为14~46分,平均(31.01±9.02)分。存活组为(20.72±3.86)分,死亡组为(36.61±5.27)分。Logistic回归分析后得出死亡风险方程:Ln[R/(1-R)]=-32.37+1.172×评分值。将患者评分代入死亡风险方程,计算死亡风险与实际病死率相比,二者接近。结论:构建的急性PQ中毒早期预后评价方法评分对于患者预后预测效果良好。
Objective: To explore the method of establishing the early prognosis of acute paraquat poisoning. Methods: On the basis of APACHE Ⅱ acute physiology score, age score and chronic health score, five indexes such as the dose of poisoning, urine PQ concentration, white blood cell count (WBC), absolute base excess (BE) Construction of acute PQ poisoning prognosis evaluation method. Establish the regression equation, the patient score into the regression equation to calculate the risk of death of patients, compared with the actual mortality to verify the reliability of the evaluation method. Results: 71 patients scored 14 to 46 points by means of evaluation method with an average of (31.01 ± 9.02) points. Survival group was (20.72 ± 3.86) points, death group was (36.61 ± 5.27) points. Logistic regression analysis of mortality risk equation: Ln [R / (1-R)] = - 32.37 + 1.172 × score. Substituting the patient score into the risk-of-death equation and calculating the risk of death compared with the actual mortality rate are close. Conclusion: The construction of acute PQ poisoning early prognostic evaluation score for the prognosis of patients with good results.