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中金公司日前发布报告称中国7、8月份宏观数据令人振奋。中金预计,短期增长动能将持续,预计7.5%以上较高的经济增速将持续到明年上半年;但中长期的结构性问题仍然存在,经济增长反弹空间有限。中金预计,今明两年中国出口增速将于低位企稳,人民币对主要新兴市场货币升值的负面影响将主要体现在明年下半年。“由于经济活动具有一定的惯性,除非有不可预期的突然冲击,总需求在短期内大幅恶化的可能性小,预计7.5%以上较高的经济增速将持续到明年上半年。”中金首席经济学家彭文生表示。
CICC recently released a report that China’s macro data in July and August are encouraging. CICC expects short-term growth momentum will continue, is expected above 7.5% higher economic growth will continue until the first half of next year; but the long-term structural problems still exist, the rebound in economic growth limited space. CICC expects China’s export growth to stabilize at a low level this year and next. The negative impact of the renminbi on the appreciation of major emerging markets will mainly be reflected in the second half of next year. “As economic activity has a certain inertia, unless there is an unexpected and sudden impact, the possibility of a sharp deterioration in aggregate demand in the short term is very small. It is estimated that a high economic growth rate above 7.5% will continue until the first half of next year.” Gold chief economist Peng Wensheng said.