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Three years and two days later， Kevin Rudd is back. On June 26， Rudd beat Julia Gillard to become head of the Australian Labor Party. One day later， he was sworn in as prime minister. To secure his position， Rudd must lead the Labor Party to victory in the coming parliamentary elections. He’ll need to plot a strong election strategy at home and deploy a stable diplomatic policy as well.
Return of Rudd
This is Rudd’s second stint as Labor Party prime minister. He became prime minister of Australia in 2007 after leading the party winning the parliamentary elections， but was later overthrown by Gillard on June 24， 2010. Observers said the Labor Party has turned to Rudd for support to keep its ruling party status.
Wang Zhenyu， a researcher with the China Institute of International Studies， told Beijing Review that as Gillard’s approval rating had been sliding in recent months， the Labor Party sensed impending defeat in the parliamentary elections this year. According to polls taken prior to Gillard’s ouster， the Labor Party’s approval rating had dropped to 29 percent， while the opposition Conservative Party’s rose to 48 percent. The widening gap forced the Labor Party to make its final decision.
Wang concluded that there are two major reasons behind Gillard’s departure： policy delivery and internal party politics.
“Gillard’s carbon tax policy offended the interests of big Australian enterprises. These enterprises thus determined to bring her down，”said Wang. Previously， Gillard enacted the carbon tax in a bid to gain needed support from the minority Green Party， betraying her campaign promise. The government claimed the move was a necessary weapon against climate change. Australia is one of the world’s worst greenhouse gas emitters per capita. While the policy caused many objections， Wang pointed out that the government’s recent fiscal budget is difficult to carry out due to the country’s struggling economy.
Previous poll results showed that the Labor Party’s approval rating had been sliding entering 2013. It was predicted that if Gillard continued at the helm， her party could lose the ruling status by 20 seats to the Conservatives in the coming campaign. Rudd has been more popular with voters， even when he was brought down by Gillard in June 2010， said Guo Chunmei， a researcher on Australian studies with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. Internal political wrangling is a long tradition of the Labor Party， whose leaders generally are surrounded by their own supporters. For example， Rudd was toppled as prime minister by Gillard in her internal coup three years ago. Additionally， some key cabinet members quit when Gillard stepped down， leading Rudd to announce his own cabinet lineup in early July.
Internal disintegration was a key factor behind Gillard’s stepping down. Although the Labor Party has common interests and governing ideas， high-ranking leaders have different opinions on specific questions， said Wang.
Guo said that differing interests， policy stances and personalities have caused internal separation of the Labor Party， and the trend is much more obvious than it was three years ago.“Under the pressure of campaigning， the conflict is too pronounced to be ignored，” she said， adding that the competition between Rudd and Gillard hasn’t let up in the past three years.
A tight race
Rudd’s victory brings more hope to the Labor Party. Under Gillard， the party’s prospects at this year’s elections seemed doomed. But recent polls suggest the race has tightened since Rudd returned to the front. The latest poll result shows that the approval rating of the Labor Party rose to 35 percent， while that of the opposition dropped to 43 percent. According to a survey of potential prime minister candidates， Rudd got a high approval rating of 49 percent，far exceeding Conservative opposition leader Tony Abbott’s 35 percent.
Wang pointed out that although it is too early to predict the winner of the campaign， Rudd’s personal charisma will be a big factor in the elections. Besides， Rudd will choose a favorable date to carry out the elections to guarantee the Labor Party’s ruling status.
Wang noted that Australia has undergone a tendency of policy convergence in recent years—that is， policy differences between parties are much less striking than before. Political parties are generally more likely to adopt moderate policies to gain a broader range of voters. Wang pointed out that the Conservatives generally support small government and applaud the functions of the market， while the Labor Party stresses social welfare， equality and justice. But he believed both parties will choose moderate policies during the campaign.
“It will be difficult for either party to gain an overwhelming victory during the elections. The Conservatives are basically center right， while the Labor Party is more center left，” said Wang. In light of Australia’s economic situation， the two parties’ economic policies will be a highlight during the coming campaign. Statistics from the Australian Government showed that Australia’s GDP during the first quarter of 2013 saw a 2.5-percent year-onyear increase. The country’s mining industry is nearly stagnant. After Rudd was sworn in as prime minister， he urged development of non-mining industries， such as finance， education and manufactured products， instead of raw material exports.
Moreover， Rudd decided to ease relations between the Labor Party and the business circle. He recently announced plans for the fixed price on carbon emissions to end on June 30， 2014. A floating carbon price， or an emissions trading scheme， which would be linked to the European carbon market， would start the following day. “The government has decided to terminate the carbon tax to ease the cost of living pressures for families and to reduce costs for small businesses，”Rudd said. “The nation’s 370 biggest polluters will continue to pay for their carbon pollution， but the cost will be reduced， meaning less pressure on consumers.”
Although Gillard set the elections for September 14， Rudd can hold them from August until November. He has declined to publicly announce a date， but he said there would not be a significant variation from September 14.
“Having been absent from the post of prime minister， Rudd doesn’t have many strong political achievements to compete with his opponent. An earlier election date will not bring him much benefit，” said Wang. He explained that there will be many international conferences and summits in the coming fall， such as the Group of 20 Summit. Being an outstanding debater and diplomat， Rudd’s performance on the international stage could net him political points abroad and add to his attractiveness at home， Wang added.
Observers agreed that regardless of which party wins the elections， there will be few changes in Sino-Australian and U.S.-Australian relations.
During the past three years， the SinoAustralian relationship has been highly promoted. When stating her political achievements upon her departure， Gillard stressed that Australia’s relations with its largest trade partner， China， have been lifted to a “strategic partnership” during her visit to China in April.
“The bilateral relationship has been institutionally guaranteed by establishing such a strategic partnership. Plus， flourishing economic cooperation has bonded the two countries together，” said Wang. China is now Australia’s top trade partner. Their bilateral trade volume reached a record high of$122.3 billion in 2012. The average annual trade growth between them during the past 10 years is 28 percent. Besides， China is a big purchaser of Australia’s mining products. Australia still relies heavily on its mining industry.
Guo pointed out that sustaining the U.S.-Australian alliance and cooperating with Washington’s strategic deployment will be a common point of understanding between Labor and Conservative parties. Since 2012， Australia has been very active in joining the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership（TPP） free trade negotiation process， marking Australia’s decision to boost economic cooperation with the United States.
“An enlarged TPP that includes emerging regional economies such as China and India will be more beneficial to Australia，” said Wang.
Return of Rudd
This is Rudd’s second stint as Labor Party prime minister. He became prime minister of Australia in 2007 after leading the party winning the parliamentary elections， but was later overthrown by Gillard on June 24， 2010. Observers said the Labor Party has turned to Rudd for support to keep its ruling party status.
Wang Zhenyu， a researcher with the China Institute of International Studies， told Beijing Review that as Gillard’s approval rating had been sliding in recent months， the Labor Party sensed impending defeat in the parliamentary elections this year. According to polls taken prior to Gillard’s ouster， the Labor Party’s approval rating had dropped to 29 percent， while the opposition Conservative Party’s rose to 48 percent. The widening gap forced the Labor Party to make its final decision.
Wang concluded that there are two major reasons behind Gillard’s departure： policy delivery and internal party politics.
“Gillard’s carbon tax policy offended the interests of big Australian enterprises. These enterprises thus determined to bring her down，”said Wang. Previously， Gillard enacted the carbon tax in a bid to gain needed support from the minority Green Party， betraying her campaign promise. The government claimed the move was a necessary weapon against climate change. Australia is one of the world’s worst greenhouse gas emitters per capita. While the policy caused many objections， Wang pointed out that the government’s recent fiscal budget is difficult to carry out due to the country’s struggling economy.
Previous poll results showed that the Labor Party’s approval rating had been sliding entering 2013. It was predicted that if Gillard continued at the helm， her party could lose the ruling status by 20 seats to the Conservatives in the coming campaign. Rudd has been more popular with voters， even when he was brought down by Gillard in June 2010， said Guo Chunmei， a researcher on Australian studies with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. Internal political wrangling is a long tradition of the Labor Party， whose leaders generally are surrounded by their own supporters. For example， Rudd was toppled as prime minister by Gillard in her internal coup three years ago. Additionally， some key cabinet members quit when Gillard stepped down， leading Rudd to announce his own cabinet lineup in early July.
Internal disintegration was a key factor behind Gillard’s stepping down. Although the Labor Party has common interests and governing ideas， high-ranking leaders have different opinions on specific questions， said Wang.
Guo said that differing interests， policy stances and personalities have caused internal separation of the Labor Party， and the trend is much more obvious than it was three years ago.“Under the pressure of campaigning， the conflict is too pronounced to be ignored，” she said， adding that the competition between Rudd and Gillard hasn’t let up in the past three years.
A tight race
Rudd’s victory brings more hope to the Labor Party. Under Gillard， the party’s prospects at this year’s elections seemed doomed. But recent polls suggest the race has tightened since Rudd returned to the front. The latest poll result shows that the approval rating of the Labor Party rose to 35 percent， while that of the opposition dropped to 43 percent. According to a survey of potential prime minister candidates， Rudd got a high approval rating of 49 percent，far exceeding Conservative opposition leader Tony Abbott’s 35 percent.
Wang pointed out that although it is too early to predict the winner of the campaign， Rudd’s personal charisma will be a big factor in the elections. Besides， Rudd will choose a favorable date to carry out the elections to guarantee the Labor Party’s ruling status.
Wang noted that Australia has undergone a tendency of policy convergence in recent years—that is， policy differences between parties are much less striking than before. Political parties are generally more likely to adopt moderate policies to gain a broader range of voters. Wang pointed out that the Conservatives generally support small government and applaud the functions of the market， while the Labor Party stresses social welfare， equality and justice. But he believed both parties will choose moderate policies during the campaign.
“It will be difficult for either party to gain an overwhelming victory during the elections. The Conservatives are basically center right， while the Labor Party is more center left，” said Wang. In light of Australia’s economic situation， the two parties’ economic policies will be a highlight during the coming campaign. Statistics from the Australian Government showed that Australia’s GDP during the first quarter of 2013 saw a 2.5-percent year-onyear increase. The country’s mining industry is nearly stagnant. After Rudd was sworn in as prime minister， he urged development of non-mining industries， such as finance， education and manufactured products， instead of raw material exports.
Moreover， Rudd decided to ease relations between the Labor Party and the business circle. He recently announced plans for the fixed price on carbon emissions to end on June 30， 2014. A floating carbon price， or an emissions trading scheme， which would be linked to the European carbon market， would start the following day. “The government has decided to terminate the carbon tax to ease the cost of living pressures for families and to reduce costs for small businesses，”Rudd said. “The nation’s 370 biggest polluters will continue to pay for their carbon pollution， but the cost will be reduced， meaning less pressure on consumers.”
Although Gillard set the elections for September 14， Rudd can hold them from August until November. He has declined to publicly announce a date， but he said there would not be a significant variation from September 14.
“Having been absent from the post of prime minister， Rudd doesn’t have many strong political achievements to compete with his opponent. An earlier election date will not bring him much benefit，” said Wang. He explained that there will be many international conferences and summits in the coming fall， such as the Group of 20 Summit. Being an outstanding debater and diplomat， Rudd’s performance on the international stage could net him political points abroad and add to his attractiveness at home， Wang added.
Observers agreed that regardless of which party wins the elections， there will be few changes in Sino-Australian and U.S.-Australian relations.
During the past three years， the SinoAustralian relationship has been highly promoted. When stating her political achievements upon her departure， Gillard stressed that Australia’s relations with its largest trade partner， China， have been lifted to a “strategic partnership” during her visit to China in April.
“The bilateral relationship has been institutionally guaranteed by establishing such a strategic partnership. Plus， flourishing economic cooperation has bonded the two countries together，” said Wang. China is now Australia’s top trade partner. Their bilateral trade volume reached a record high of$122.3 billion in 2012. The average annual trade growth between them during the past 10 years is 28 percent. Besides， China is a big purchaser of Australia’s mining products. Australia still relies heavily on its mining industry.
Guo pointed out that sustaining the U.S.-Australian alliance and cooperating with Washington’s strategic deployment will be a common point of understanding between Labor and Conservative parties. Since 2012， Australia has been very active in joining the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership（TPP） free trade negotiation process， marking Australia’s decision to boost economic cooperation with the United States.
“An enlarged TPP that includes emerging regional economies such as China and India will be more beneficial to Australia，” said Wang.