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目的分析辽宁省阜新市2008—2015年手足口病流行病学特征,预测手足口病短期流行趋势。方法采用描述流行病学分析和相关统计分析方法,对阜新市2008—2015年手足口病的流行病学特征进行统计分析。利用2009年1月—2016年6月分月手足口病发病数时间序列构建自回归移动平均模型ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)_(12)。结果 2008—2015年阜新市共报告手足口病4 493例,年均发病率为30.02/10万,无死亡病例,全市7个县区均出现不同程度的流行,以市区、县为主。病例时间分布呈单峰型,主要集中在6—8月;年龄以5岁以下儿童为主,集中在散居儿童和幼托儿童;病原类型以EV71为优势病原,柯萨奇病毒A组16型(Cox A16)和其他肠道病毒所占比例接近。结论阜新市手足口病季节性明显,呈周期性流行,市区和县是重点防控地区,不同地区优势病原不同,病原监测尽量采集发病7天内的样本,ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)_(12)模型可用于阜新市手足口病短期预测。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Fuxin City, Liaoning Province from 2008 to 2015 and predict the short-term epidemic trend of HFMD. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis and related statistical analysis methods were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in Fuxin city from 2008 to 2015. ARIMA (1,0,0) (0,1,1) _ (12) was constructed by using monthly time series of hand foot and mouth disease from January 2009 to June 2016. Results A total of 4 493 HFMD cases were reported in Fuxin city from 2008 to 2015, with an average annual incidence rate of 30.02 / 100 000. There were no deaths and all the 7 counties in the city showed different degrees of prevalence, mainly in urban districts and counties. The distribution of time was unimodal, mainly in June-August. The age was mainly for children under 5 years of age, and was mainly concentrated in diaspora and preschool children. The pathogen type was EV71, and the coxsackievirus A group 16 (Cox A16) and other enteric viruses in a similar proportion. Conclusion Hand-foot-mouth disease in Fuxin City is seasonal and epidemic. The urban and county areas are the key prevention and control areas. The predominant pathogens in different areas are different. The pathogen monitor collects samples within 7 days from onset, and ARIMA (1,0,0) ( 0,1,1) _ (12) model can be used for short-term prediction of hand-foot-mouth disease in Fuxin city.