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本轮衰退极有可能需要经历多重波动后最终触底,而非市场普遍预期的下半年即可复苏,目前最主要的两个不确定因素是经济政策的施行和金融机构的信贷信心恢复。预计美国经济实现触底的过程可能更漫长。
This round of recession is most likely to eventually bottom out after experiencing multiple volatility rather than the second half of the market generally expected to recover. The two most important uncertainties at present are the implementation of economic policies and the restoration of credit confidence of financial institutions. The process of reaching a bottom in the U.S. economy is expected to be even longer.