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人民币的升值并没有导致中国对美国贸易顺差的减少,结合中国参与国际垂直分工,计算整体和行业层面对美国出口的垂直专业指标,并且利用汇改以来的月度数据,检验在垂直专业化条件下的汇率与贸易的关系,结果发现,垂直专业化程度高的行业,汇率的变化对于贸易没有影响;而垂直专业化程度低的行业,人民币的升值对于出口和贸易顺差产生了显著的负面影响。其主要原因是高垂直专业化的行业大量进口中间产品,经过组装以后再出口,其利益主要为跨国企业获得。并且从整体上看中国的出口主要依赖这些行业,所以人民币的升值并没有导致对美国贸易顺差的减少。
Renminbi appreciation has not caused China to reduce the trade surplus with the United States, combined with China’s participation in the international vertical division of labor, the calculation of the overall professional and industry-level exports to the United States vertical professional indicators, and the use of monthly data since the exchange reform to test the conditions of vertical specialization The results showed that the changes in the exchange rate had no effect on the trade in sectors with a high degree of vertical specialization, while the appreciation in the renminbi had a significant negative impact on the export and trade surpluses in industries with a low degree of vertical specialization. The main reason for this is that a large number of highly specialized vertical industries import intermediate products, which are re-exported after being assembled. Their interests are mainly obtained by multinational enterprises. And as a whole, China’s exports mainly depend on these industries, so the appreciation of the renminbi has not resulted in a reduction in the U.S. trade surplus.