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本文用1981-2011年的时序数据,借助脉冲响应函数、方差分解刻画城镇化发展、产业结构优化、投资之间的动态关系。研究结果表明:三者确实存在互相影响的动态关系并且长期正向交互响应作用更为稳定。在制定城市化发展方针以及产业优化政策、投资政策时应采取长期性的齐头并进政策,避免出现短板和短期行为。
In this paper, the time series data from 1981 to 2011 are used to characterize the dynamic relationship between urbanization, industrial structure optimization and investment by means of impulse response function and variance decomposition. The results show that there is indeed a dynamic relationship among the three and their interaction with long-term positive interaction is more stable. In the formulation of urbanization guidelines and industrial optimization policies, investment policies should be taken long-term go hand in hand policies to avoid short-term and short-term behavior.