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今年以来,受整体经济增长放缓和短期政策调整的叠加影响,消费名义增速放缓,总体处于下行区间。中长期看,支撑消费增长的基本因素在持续改善,但由于受经济周期性波动影响,短期内不利因素影响更为突出,本轮消费周期表现出“快升慢落”特点,消费增速放缓,但下行空间有限。综合因素分析和ARMA模型预测,今年社会消费品零售总额增长预计在14%左右,2013年增长15%左右。当前中央政府应尽早明确促进消费的政策重点。着重从增强居民消费能力,改善居民消费预期,稳步促进消费升级和完善消费基础设施等方面,进一步促进消费需求扩大。
Since the beginning of this year, under the influence of the slowdown of overall economic growth and the adjustment of short-term policies, the growth rate of consumer spending has slowed down, with the overall downward trend. In the medium and long term, the basic factors supporting the growth of consumption continue to improve. However, due to the impact of cyclical fluctuations in economy, the unfavorable factors are more prominent in the short run. The consumption cycle of this round shows the characteristics of “rapid rise and slow down” Slow down, but downside is limited. The comprehensive factor analysis and the ARMA model predict that the total retail sales of social consumer goods will increase by about 14% this year and about 15% in 2013. At present, the Central Government should clearly define the policy priorities for promoting consumption. Emphasis will be placed on further promoting the expansion of consumer demand in terms of enhancing residents’ spending power, improving household consumption expectation, steadily promoting consumption upgrading and improving consumer infrastructure.