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The death of former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi on October 20 marked a turning point for the North African country. Three days later in the country’s second largest city Benghazi, which was rocked by massive anti-Gaddafi protests in February, the ruling National Transitional Council (NTC) declared that Libya had been “liberated.”
With this announcement, the eight-monthlong conflict between Gaddafi’s loyalists and NTC fighters ended. But the turbulent situation in Libya didn’t, and the country will face mounting uncertainties as the new authorities try to restore peace and stability.
Uncertainties
The NTC has said an interim government will be formed within a month to run the country’s affairs. However, analysts pointed out that forming such an interim government will not be easy. Plus, challenges will remain even if the new government is established as scheduled.
“Libya’s chance of resuming stability within a short time is very slim,” said Li Guofu, Director of the Center of Middle East Studies at the China Institute of International Studies. “It will go through a long transitional period—a process of reorganizing and reallocating political and economic power as well as cultural influence—during which chaos and armed conflicts might persist.”
He pointed out that the situation is complicated because of existing conflicts between tribes, ethnic groups and religious factions, which have a long history. The NTC will have to spend most of its time and energy balancing different kinds of conflicts.
Libya can generally be divided into three parts, the south, the east and the west. The east, with its center in Benghazi, had been the political and economic center until Gaddafi came to power after a coup in 1969. Gaddafi established the Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya in 1977 and adopted a relatively loose state structure similar to anarchy. The country’s political and economic center moved to the capital city of Tripoli in the west. Hatred between the west and the east is deeply rooted, said Li Guofu.
Anti-Gaddafi protests started in February in several eastern cities including Benghazi. Also, militants from the east played an important role in overthrowing the Gaddafi regime. It is predictable that the east will have a bigger say in the future administration, said Li Guofu.
“Politicians representing different parts of the country will fight for influence during the transitional period,” he said. Although Gaddafi is dead, his supporters remain active.
NATO has declared that it is scheduled to end its military operations in Libya by October 31. Gaddafi’s death and the withdrawal of
NATO forces will leave a period of power vacuum in Libya. Clashes among different ethnic groups aiming to seize power might break out.
“The biggest challenge for Libya is that it cannot form a new government with real authority,” Li Guofu said. “The NTC currently is not able to implement its strategies and policies throughout the country.”
Worse still, the fight against Gaddafi has created a well-armed population, which poses a big threat to Libya’s security, he added.
Li Guofu also said because the NTC has shown signs of growing Islamism, its future policies might trigger disapproval from both Western nations and Libyan youth. NTC chief Mustafa Abdel Jalil reiterated that traditional Islamic law would be the main source of law in Libya, and any law that contradicts Islamic law would be suspended. For example, polygamy will be accepted in the country in accordance with Islamic law.
During the Gaddafi era, Libya adopted relatively moderate and open social policies, Li Guofu said. Young Libyans will hardly be able to get used to strict Islamic law. Many scholars and government officials have also accepted the modern culture of the outside world. Conflicts between cultures and ideologies will affect stability during the interim period.
Li Shaoxian, a senior researcher on Middle East studies with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, echoed Li Guofu’s views. Due to the NTC decision to adhere to Islamic law, conflicts between religious beliefs and secular society are rapidly growing. If this trend continues, Libya will also
find itself at odds with the West, he said.
Libya had several major power centers in Benghazi, Misrata and Tripoli during the fight against Gaddafi, which reflected frictions between different regions, Li Shaoxian said. There are constant disputes and conflicts between different tribes due to historical reasons. Currently there are more than 100 tribes and ethnic groups in Libya.
Li Guofu said because of all the uncertainties it is hard to predict Libya’s future.“Everything in Libya is unpredictable now. The only thing the outside world can do is to wait and see,” he said.
While comparing Libya’s postwar aftermath with turmoil in the wake of Westernled wars that toppled governments in Iraq and Afghanistan, Li Guofu said Libya has more resemblance with Afghanistan in cultural and social traditions. In Iraq, conflicts happen between warlords, while in Afghanistan, religious frictions are more common.
“If Libya’s situation worsens, it might be the next Afghanistan,” he warned. Reconstruction
Aside from the political process, reconstruction is now a top priority of the NTC and Libya. The months-long domestic conflict caused tens of thousands of casualties in Libya and many others became homeless. The country’s infrastructure was seriously damaged. Factories, shops and banks were closed. Water and power shortages are common everywhere.
Big cities like Tripoli and Misrata, in particular, suffered heavy damage because of the war. According to an NTC estimate, the reconstruction will cost at least $2.5 trillion. Fortunately, the country has oil.
“For the time being, Libya will rely on oil exports,” said Li Guofu.
Libya is known as a big energy exporter. It has oil reserves of 43 billion barrels, the largest among African nations and the ninth largest in the world. Before the war its daily crude oil output was 1.6 million barrels. Since February, oil production had been suspended because of constant attacks and damage to facilities. Recently, some oil enterprises have resumed production.
Western nations are active in Libya’s reconstruction. Because they were directly involved in the Libyan civil war, they will inevitably play a bigger role in Libya’s reconstruction, said Li Guofu. For example, France took great political, economic and military risks when leading air strikes against proGaddafi forces. Now Libya’s reconstruction means more contracts for French companies.
Western countries will conduct a new round of fighting over Libya’s oil resources, said Li Guofu. Under the Gaddafi administration there were at least 35 foreign oil and natural gas companies in Libya, mostly from Europe. Italy’s ENI, Britain’s BP, France’s Total, Spain’s Repsol and Austria’s OMV were all important oil producers in Libya. These companies are likely to occupy preferential positions during Libya’s reconstruction.
In September at a high-level meeting on Libya during the annual UN General Assembly, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi stated China’s stance on Libya’s reconstruction.
He said China will continue its support to the Libyan people in their efforts to carry out reconstruction and promote development. The Red Cross Society of China has offered 50 million yuan ($7.88 million) in emergency humanitarian aid to war-torn Libya.
Before the war, there were more than 70 Chinese enterprises with investments in Libya mainly in infrastructure and telecommunications. In March the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said China had contracted 50 projects in Libya, which suffered a total loss about $20 billion because of the war.
Li Guofu pointed out that Libya’s reconstruction also brings opportunities for Chinese enterprises. He said many of Libya’s infrastructure facilities and residences were ruined in the war. Chinese companies have advantages in contracting these projects because of their lower labor and material costs and high quality. And these projects are not the focus of Western companies.
“Chinese people and Libyan people have cemented a good cooperative basis over the past years,” Li Guofu said.
He also said Chinese companies would be cautious about participating in Libya’s reconstruction. They can engage in projects related to local people’s livelihoods, such as water and power supply, telecommunications, construction and transportation. But since the country’s situation is still quite unstable, they need to carefully consider their business decisions while refraining from rushing headlong into action, he said.
With this announcement, the eight-monthlong conflict between Gaddafi’s loyalists and NTC fighters ended. But the turbulent situation in Libya didn’t, and the country will face mounting uncertainties as the new authorities try to restore peace and stability.
Uncertainties
The NTC has said an interim government will be formed within a month to run the country’s affairs. However, analysts pointed out that forming such an interim government will not be easy. Plus, challenges will remain even if the new government is established as scheduled.
“Libya’s chance of resuming stability within a short time is very slim,” said Li Guofu, Director of the Center of Middle East Studies at the China Institute of International Studies. “It will go through a long transitional period—a process of reorganizing and reallocating political and economic power as well as cultural influence—during which chaos and armed conflicts might persist.”
He pointed out that the situation is complicated because of existing conflicts between tribes, ethnic groups and religious factions, which have a long history. The NTC will have to spend most of its time and energy balancing different kinds of conflicts.
Libya can generally be divided into three parts, the south, the east and the west. The east, with its center in Benghazi, had been the political and economic center until Gaddafi came to power after a coup in 1969. Gaddafi established the Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya in 1977 and adopted a relatively loose state structure similar to anarchy. The country’s political and economic center moved to the capital city of Tripoli in the west. Hatred between the west and the east is deeply rooted, said Li Guofu.
Anti-Gaddafi protests started in February in several eastern cities including Benghazi. Also, militants from the east played an important role in overthrowing the Gaddafi regime. It is predictable that the east will have a bigger say in the future administration, said Li Guofu.
“Politicians representing different parts of the country will fight for influence during the transitional period,” he said. Although Gaddafi is dead, his supporters remain active.
NATO has declared that it is scheduled to end its military operations in Libya by October 31. Gaddafi’s death and the withdrawal of
NATO forces will leave a period of power vacuum in Libya. Clashes among different ethnic groups aiming to seize power might break out.
“The biggest challenge for Libya is that it cannot form a new government with real authority,” Li Guofu said. “The NTC currently is not able to implement its strategies and policies throughout the country.”
Worse still, the fight against Gaddafi has created a well-armed population, which poses a big threat to Libya’s security, he added.
Li Guofu also said because the NTC has shown signs of growing Islamism, its future policies might trigger disapproval from both Western nations and Libyan youth. NTC chief Mustafa Abdel Jalil reiterated that traditional Islamic law would be the main source of law in Libya, and any law that contradicts Islamic law would be suspended. For example, polygamy will be accepted in the country in accordance with Islamic law.
During the Gaddafi era, Libya adopted relatively moderate and open social policies, Li Guofu said. Young Libyans will hardly be able to get used to strict Islamic law. Many scholars and government officials have also accepted the modern culture of the outside world. Conflicts between cultures and ideologies will affect stability during the interim period.
Li Shaoxian, a senior researcher on Middle East studies with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, echoed Li Guofu’s views. Due to the NTC decision to adhere to Islamic law, conflicts between religious beliefs and secular society are rapidly growing. If this trend continues, Libya will also
find itself at odds with the West, he said.
Libya had several major power centers in Benghazi, Misrata and Tripoli during the fight against Gaddafi, which reflected frictions between different regions, Li Shaoxian said. There are constant disputes and conflicts between different tribes due to historical reasons. Currently there are more than 100 tribes and ethnic groups in Libya.
Li Guofu said because of all the uncertainties it is hard to predict Libya’s future.“Everything in Libya is unpredictable now. The only thing the outside world can do is to wait and see,” he said.
While comparing Libya’s postwar aftermath with turmoil in the wake of Westernled wars that toppled governments in Iraq and Afghanistan, Li Guofu said Libya has more resemblance with Afghanistan in cultural and social traditions. In Iraq, conflicts happen between warlords, while in Afghanistan, religious frictions are more common.
“If Libya’s situation worsens, it might be the next Afghanistan,” he warned. Reconstruction
Aside from the political process, reconstruction is now a top priority of the NTC and Libya. The months-long domestic conflict caused tens of thousands of casualties in Libya and many others became homeless. The country’s infrastructure was seriously damaged. Factories, shops and banks were closed. Water and power shortages are common everywhere.
Big cities like Tripoli and Misrata, in particular, suffered heavy damage because of the war. According to an NTC estimate, the reconstruction will cost at least $2.5 trillion. Fortunately, the country has oil.
“For the time being, Libya will rely on oil exports,” said Li Guofu.
Libya is known as a big energy exporter. It has oil reserves of 43 billion barrels, the largest among African nations and the ninth largest in the world. Before the war its daily crude oil output was 1.6 million barrels. Since February, oil production had been suspended because of constant attacks and damage to facilities. Recently, some oil enterprises have resumed production.
Western nations are active in Libya’s reconstruction. Because they were directly involved in the Libyan civil war, they will inevitably play a bigger role in Libya’s reconstruction, said Li Guofu. For example, France took great political, economic and military risks when leading air strikes against proGaddafi forces. Now Libya’s reconstruction means more contracts for French companies.
Western countries will conduct a new round of fighting over Libya’s oil resources, said Li Guofu. Under the Gaddafi administration there were at least 35 foreign oil and natural gas companies in Libya, mostly from Europe. Italy’s ENI, Britain’s BP, France’s Total, Spain’s Repsol and Austria’s OMV were all important oil producers in Libya. These companies are likely to occupy preferential positions during Libya’s reconstruction.
In September at a high-level meeting on Libya during the annual UN General Assembly, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi stated China’s stance on Libya’s reconstruction.
He said China will continue its support to the Libyan people in their efforts to carry out reconstruction and promote development. The Red Cross Society of China has offered 50 million yuan ($7.88 million) in emergency humanitarian aid to war-torn Libya.
Before the war, there were more than 70 Chinese enterprises with investments in Libya mainly in infrastructure and telecommunications. In March the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said China had contracted 50 projects in Libya, which suffered a total loss about $20 billion because of the war.
Li Guofu pointed out that Libya’s reconstruction also brings opportunities for Chinese enterprises. He said many of Libya’s infrastructure facilities and residences were ruined in the war. Chinese companies have advantages in contracting these projects because of their lower labor and material costs and high quality. And these projects are not the focus of Western companies.
“Chinese people and Libyan people have cemented a good cooperative basis over the past years,” Li Guofu said.
He also said Chinese companies would be cautious about participating in Libya’s reconstruction. They can engage in projects related to local people’s livelihoods, such as water and power supply, telecommunications, construction and transportation. But since the country’s situation is still quite unstable, they need to carefully consider their business decisions while refraining from rushing headlong into action, he said.