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利用预测模型从原料生产的角度,分析了我国食糖供给的变化趋势;然后从居民用糖和工业用糖两个方面,研究了食糖需求的变化;最后从贸易的角度,探讨了我国满足国内食糖供需缺口的可能途径。研究发现:食糖的供给潜力主要在于甘蔗糖方面;需求方面,工业用糖量增长较快,是推动食糖需求增长的主要动力。由于食糖需求增长的速度快于供给的增长,我国食糖的供求缺口有不断增加趋势。为避免食糖体系失衡风险,增加国内食糖供给才是解决我国食糖供求矛盾的最佳途径。
The forecasting model was used to analyze the trend of sugar supply in China from the perspective of raw material production. Then, the change of sugar demand was studied from residential sugar and industrial sugar. Finally, from the perspective of trade, Possible ways of supply and demand gap. The study found that: the potential for sugar supply mainly in terms of cane sugar; demand, industrial sugar increased rapidly, is to promote the main driving force of sugar demand growth. As the demand for sugar is growing faster than the growth of supply, the gap between supply and demand of sugar in our country is on the rise. In order to avoid the imbalance of the sugar system, increasing the domestic sugar supply is the best way to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of sugar in our country.