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研究淮河流域极端降水时空演变规律对流域防洪减灾、水资源规划等意义重大。基于淮河流域24个气象站1961~2011年汛期逐日降水资料,建立极端降水序列,并对极端降水频度和强度的趋势、突变及周期变化特征进行了年尺度和年代尺度的时空变化分析。结果表明,极端降水频度和强度均呈较显著的上升趋势,且均在2000年代出现大幅提高,时间变化的第一主周期为4年;频度和强度的空间分布基本符合右岸强、左岸弱,南部强、北部弱,从上游内陆至下游沿海逐渐增加的分布规律;各年代极端降水空间分布发生变化,沿海与内陆的频度差异逐渐缩小,左右岸的强度差异越来越显著。研究成果可为水资源规划管理工作提供参考。
It is of great significance to study the temporal and spatial variation of extreme precipitation in the Huaihe River basin for flood control and disaster reduction and water resources planning in the basin. Based on the daily precipitation data from 24 weather stations in the Huaihe River basin from 1961 to 2011, the extreme precipitation series were established. The temporal and spatial variations of the trends, abrupt changes and periodic variations of the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation were analyzed. The results show that both the frequency and the intensity of extreme precipitation show a significant upward trend, both of which show a sharp rise in the 2000s. The first major period of time variation is 4 years. The spatial distribution of frequency and intensity is basically consistent with that of the right bank and left bank Weak, strong in the south and weak in the north, and gradually increased from the upstream to the downstream. The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation changed in each age, and the difference of coastal and inland frequency gradually decreased, and the strength difference between the left and right bank became more and more significant . The research results can provide a reference for water resources planning and management.