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人们往往以为人民币升值能够促使我国经济结构升级。但本文认为,人民币升值更应该是经济结构调整的结果而不是原因。过去几十年的国际分工塑造出以美国为首的创新需求中心和以中国为首的制造中心,在“末端开放”的格局下,汇率变动虽然不能影响国际经济发展的模式,但却能左右制造中心之间的竞争结果。随着人民币升值的外部压力逐渐加大和我国“刘易斯转折点”的到来,要想人民币升值而不影响经济增长,我国必须实现从制造中心向创新和需求中心的转变。这就要求,一方面通过鼓励技术创新来提升经济结构,另一方面通过扩大内需来增加社会福利和诱致技术创新,进而优化经济结构。
People often think that the appreciation of the renminbi can promote the upgrading of China’s economic structure. However, this paper argues that the appreciation of the renminbi should be the result of economic restructuring rather than the reason. Over the past few decades, the international division of labor shaped the center of innovation demand headed by the United States and the manufacturing center headed by China. Under the pattern of “open end,” exchange rate movements, while not affecting the pattern of international economic development, Competition between manufacturing centers. With the gradual increase of external pressure on RMB appreciation and the arrival of the “Lewis turning point” in our country, we must realize the transformation from a manufacturing center to an innovation and demand center in order to appreciate the renminbi without affecting economic growth. This requires, on the one hand, to promote economic structure through encouraging technological innovation; on the other, to increase social welfare and induce technological innovation through expanding domestic demand so as to optimize the economic structure.