论文部分内容阅读
本文建立了一个包含非正规就业的多部门NK-DSGE模型,并基于这一模型对我国劳动力市场动态与非正规就业广泛存在背景下的货币政策机制进行了分析。我们首先利用我国的现实数据对这一模型进行了贝叶斯估计,在此基础上对单一部门模型与多部门模型进行了比较。模型选择检验的结果发现,现实数据显著支持了多部门模型。外生冲击的贝叶斯脉冲响应函数显示,不同部门的就业、新雇佣数量以及产出等变量对于同一外生冲击具有不同的动态反应,这一发现意味着考虑不同部门之间异质性的多部门模型可能更为合理。敏感度分析的结果指出,家庭成员风险共担的程度对于主要宏观经济变量的波动性与持续性均具有显著影响。货币政策分析的结果表明,对失业做出反应的Evans规则具有最小的社会福利损失,这意味着在当前我国就业形势日益严峻的背景下,采用这一政策机制对于缓解失业以及降低政策引起的社会福利损失等均具有相对较好的政策效果。另外,对正规部门雇佣成本做出反应的政策机制所引起的社会福利损失也相对较小,因而在政府积极推进机关事业单位养老机制改革的过程中,采用这一政策机制作为辅助,对于我国劳动力市场状况的改善也将具有积极的意义。
This paper establishes a multi-sector NK-DSGE model that includes informal employment, and based on this model, analyzes the monetary policy mechanism under the background of the labor market dynamics and informal employment in our country. First, we make Bayesian estimation of this model by using our country's real data. Based on this, we compare the single-sector model with the multi-sector model. The results of the model selection test found that the real data significantly supported the multisectoral model. The Bayesian impulse response function of exogenous shocks shows that variables such as employment, new employment and output in different sectors have different dynamic responses to the same exogenous shocks. This finding implies that considering the heterogeneity among different sectors Multi-sectoral model may be more reasonable. The results of sensitivity analysis indicate that the degree of risk sharing among family members has a significant impact on the volatility and sustainability of the major macroeconomic variables. The result of monetary policy analysis shows that the Evans rule that responds to the unemployment has the smallest social welfare loss, which means using this policy mechanism to alleviate the unemployment and reduce the social caused by the policy under the background of the current increasingly grim employment situation in our country Welfare loss, etc. have relatively good policy results. In addition, the loss of social welfare caused by the policy mechanism that responds to the employment costs of the formal sector is also relatively small. Therefore, when the government actively promotes the reform of the pension system for public institutions and public institutions, this policy mechanism is used as an aid to our labor force The improvement of market conditions will also have a positive meaning.