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改革开放以来,伴随着我国社会经济体制的不断深化和经济的高速发展,我国税收收入在经历了波动后呈现出快速增长的趋势。本文使用计量分阶段模型对我国的1978年至2011年的GDP和税收总额统计数据资料进行分析,对税收的增长变化进行描述性分析,得到我国税收与GDP的相关关系。描述了税收增长速度明显高于GDP增长速度的现象和其产生将导致的后果,并为现实经济和税收的合理、平稳增长提出相应的政策建议。
Since the reform and opening up, with the deepening of China’s social and economic system and the rapid economic development, China’s tax revenue has shown a rapid growth trend after it has experienced fluctuations. This paper analyzes the statistical data of GDP and tax revenue in China from 1978 to 2011 by using the phased model of measurement, and makes a descriptive analysis on the growth and change of tax revenue to get the correlation between tax revenue and GDP in China. Describes the tax revenue growth rate was significantly higher than the GDP growth rate of the phenomenon and its consequences will be caused, and for the real economy and tax revenue reasonable and steady growth and make the appropriate policy recommendations.