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尽管当前中国经济指标存在一定的背离,但整体来看,弱增长、低通胀、高利率的基本面并没有改变。今年1~2月,中国宏观经济数据波动较大。值得关注的是,其中的一些数据出现了相互背离。如出口大增与进口超预期下跌,CPI与PPI走势相悖、剪刀差扩大,PMI数据转好但主要经济数据却持续滑落等等。笔者认为,这些看似矛盾的经济数据,恰恰反映了新常态下经济运行的新特征,试做分析如下。第一,外贸不振下顺差再创历史新高。2月,出口同比大增48.3%而进口同比下滑20.5%,远远超出市场预期。这也导致当月贸易顺差高达606.2
Despite the current divergence in China’s economic indicators, on the whole, the fundamentals of weak growth, low inflation and high interest rates have not changed. From January to February this year, China’s macroeconomic data fluctuated significantly. It is noteworthy that some of these data appear to deviate from each other. Such as the sharp increase in exports and imports fell more than expected, CPI and PPI contrary to the trend, scissors to expand the poor, PMI data, but the main economic data continued to decline and so on. The author believes that these seemingly contradictory economic data precisely reflect the new features of economic operation under the new normal, try to do the following analysis. First, a sluggish trade hit a new record high. In February, exports surged 48.3% YoY while imports fell 20.5% YoY, well ahead of market expectations. This also led to the current month trade surplus of up to 606.2