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宏观经济 1.宏观经济环境评价 国际经济继续保持总体良好走势。据国际货币基金组织今年4月的最新预测,2000年全球经济将增长4.2％。美国经济增势今年可能还会继续,其增长率约为4.5％,但是下半年增长将放缓。在国内,今年上半年以来,GDP、消费者信心指数、货币供应量、净出口等指标率先走出低谷,有了明显的回升迹象,但CPI、固定资产投资等指标还在低位徘徊。更进一步,几个主要指标在下半年很难保持上半年的增长幅度:进出口尤其是出口增长(外需)速度将降低;消费需求并没有真正启动;民间投资没有启动——投资的大幅度增长是上半年经济增长的主
Macroeconomics 1. Macroeconomic environment evaluation The international economy continued its overall good trend. According to the latest forecast made by the International Monetary Fund in April this year, the global economy will grow by 4.2% in 2000. The U.S. economic growth is likely to continue this year with a growth rate of about 4.5%, but growth will slow in the second half. In China, indicators such as GDP, consumer confidence index, money supply and net exports took the lead out of the doldrums with obvious signs of recovery since the first half of this year. However, indices such as CPI and fixed asset investment are still hovering at low levels. Furthermore, it is very difficult for several key indicators to maintain their growth in the first half of the year in the second half of the year: the rate of export and import growth, especially export growth (external demand) will decrease; consumer demand has not really started; private investment has not started - and the substantial increase in investment is In the first half of the main economic growth