Improvement of 6-15 Day Precipitation Forecasts Using a Time-Lagged Ensemble Method

• 作 者: JIE Weihua WU Tongwen WANG Jun
• 机 构: UniversityofChineseAcademyofSciences,BeijingClimateCenter,DepartmentofEarthandAtmosphericSciences
• 出 处: 大气科学进展：英文版
• 发表日期: 2014年2期
• 关键词: 时间滞后 集成方法 降水预报 定性预测 平均降水量 大气环流模式 频率偏差 有效时间 time-lagged ensemble system lagged a
• 基金项目: This work was supported by the Na- tional Basic Research Program of China （973 Program： Grant No. 2010CB951902）. the Special Program for China Meteorology Trade （Grant No. GYHY201306020）. and the Tech

A time-lagged ensemble method is used to improve 6–15 day precipitation forecasts from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model, version 2.0.1. The approach averages the deterministic predictions of precipitation from the most rece